Chaos Theory and Poker – Getting Mathematical For Higher Profits

A few people have asked about poker math, and more specifically, chaos theory. Now, we don’t like getting too technical on here, because poker is about settling back to have a good time. However, we also want to give you any type of information that you’re going to help you be more profitable.

Simply put, chaos theory is a whole field of study that revolves around the “butterfly effect” — the idea that small inputs have bigger effects than we know about. Chaos is actually all around us. You might think that poker is a set of static conditions, but it’s not that way at all. You will have more factors affecting your win-rate than you can even imagine. It’s going to be up to you to figure out how to weave in what you’ll learn about chaos theory into your regular poker games.

chaos theoryChaos theory also deals with error — we have to estimate a lot of the data that we use all of the time in the world of poker, and sometimes we’ll get it wrong. So we have to assume that our strategy will be thrown off not just by the luck of the cards, but also that the assumptions we make about the players around us can be wrong. This includes misreading players. You might think that a player is being passive, when they’re actually switching into a tight play. If your strategy is completely based on that player going loose passive, you’re going to be thrown for a loop when they start trying to shove their weight around the game.

This is also where leaks come into play. You might think that as long as you’re coming out positive in terms of making money, that everything is alright. Not only are you leaving money on the table, but your poker leaks are actually making your strategy erode on its own over time, according to chaos theory. This is definitely not where you want to go.

This is just an opening introduction to chaos theory. Given that this is a highly technical topic, we’ll try to break it down into multiple sections. This is just to get you thinking in the right direction. For now, take the time to really look at the data behind all of your poker games. Reviewing your statistics coupled with hand history can give you insight that you might not have considered before. Good luck!

Betting on the River Without Blowing Your Stack

River, river, river — there’s something about the river that makes a good poker player go absolutely nuts! We see it time after time — chasing the river, and trying to bet hard on the river. It’s two different situations, but betting on the river isn’t a good thing at all. What you really want to do is make sure that the river bet is as profitable and plausible as possible. Does the bet make sense? That’s what we’re trying to find out.

It’s all about value — you want to hope for better hands to fold, or for worse hands to call. Worse hands no longer have time to get better, so a good bet can actually add money to the pot that wouldn’t otherwise be there.

The problem is that against decent competition, the bad hands will just fold, and the better hands may actually raise you on the river as a way of goading you into spewing chips into a pot that you just can’t win. If you sense this is happening to you, you definitely need to make sure that you fold out as soon as possible.

Betting on the RiverDon’t think that you need to surge forward when it’s better to back down. That’s a good way to lose a lot of chips. Protecting your stack is more important than being right, you know.

Player image does play a role into the type of hand that you should be betting at the river on. If you are going against a calling station that will call any bet, then betting on the river means that you’re adding more profit into your pocket. However, if you’re going against tight aggressive players, you’re not going to add anymore profit \into your stack.

Looking at all of your options is important. There’s nothing wrong with not betting on the river and just going into the showdown. Mixing it up will also keep the other players guessing. If they know that you’re going to always bet on the river when you have something good, then they’ll just fold.

Experiment in real games and see what happens. Good luck!

Game, Set, Match – Making a Roaring Comeback to Poker

Hey, tiger. Remember that post where we told you that if you’re really feeling burned out and stressed from playing too much poker that you should go ahead and step back? We remember that post too. However, if you’re ready to finally go out there and do some big things with your poker game, the time is right to get back in the game. We’ve made a few posts like this before but since we’re going into Spring hardcore, it’s time to go back to the drawing board. Just in case you’re new to the game, we’ll explain a few things here and there, but we also expect you to do your homework. Poker ain’t for lightweights, you know.

So, let’s get into it.

The first thing has to be mindset. If you’re groaning as a newbie, worrying that we’re going to get into some New Age stuff, the truth is that you aren’t going to have to worry about that at all. We’re just trying to tell you about the power of your own mind. When you sit down at any modern poker table, they’re going to be trying to get you to freak out. If you’re emotional, you’ll play emotionally. That means extra chips in the hands of your opponents. If you’re stressed out about something, you need to make sure that you get over it. If you can’t, then you shouldn’t be playing.

play pokerStrategy will be one of your biggest areas to improve before you can truly make a good poker comeback. You might think that it’s going to be all fun and games, but why should it be? Shouldn’t it be about getting the biggest outcome possible for your poker game? You are playing competitively for real money. Act like it. Don’t freak out just because things aren’t going your way. Study the competition. Look at how they’re playing.

Far too many poker players get into situations where they just assume everything should work a certain way, all of the time. You could play by the book and still get a bad beat. It’s perfectly fine.

Practice is the name of the game. A few people always write in, trying to get us to help them with strategy. They don’t seem to realize that they aren’t going to be able to just adjust strategy based on a few plays here and there. You’re going to have to play tens of thousands of hands before you can make big decisions. Moving up to higher stakes would be a decision best made after you have more information. Otherwise, it just looks like you’re trying to play far out of your league. Move up slowly and protect your bankroll.

The final piece of advice we’d give you is to remember that poker is about community. You need to make sure that you’re going to have a lot of people that have different opinions. Instead of thinking you have to be an island, why not reach out and embrace the thoughts of other people? You can take the things that served you and leave the rest behind. You will gain more out of poker if you treat it like a social exchange than if you assume you have to always be on your guard. Good luck!

Going Double Barrel Without Giving Yourself Away

Well, here we are again with some more poker tips and theories. A few newcomers have already emailed with fresh advice that they need for an ever changing poker field. They want to know about double barrel poker, so we figured that we would oblige them.

This is easily classified as preflop strategy — the flop came down, now what to you honestly do? Some players know that they really need to work on their postflop game, but they’re just not sure how.

The double barrel is where you continue a bluff or a semi-bluff after the flop. If the flop failed you and the continuation bet failed you, you might throw out one more bet, sure that your opponent will go ahead and fold.

preflop strategy

It’s all about image here when you start thinking about whether or not folding is a good option for you. If you’re playing a very passive and not aggressive player, then this might not be a bad idea at all. On the other hand, if you know that you’re playing against someone that will see through the bluff and even push you hard, you might want to skip this technique and fold accordingly. You’ll just end up wasting money and throwing off the wrong signs. You don’t want to become somebody else’s piñata.

You also want to think about what type of poker you’re honestly playing. $1/2 stakes is one thing, but does the barrel theory apply when the stakes jump to 10/20, or even 50/100? You have to make sure that you’re adjusting your excitations based on the field you’re working with. Tournament vs. cash games come into mind here as well. Since you’re playing the same 9 people to the “death”, you want to study their images carefully before you try to double or triple barrel it up.

This is not a technique that you’ll want to pull out over and over again. If you are a new player, you honestly want to avoid bluffing for as long as you can. Why? The truth is that the more you bluff, the more likely it is that someone will call you out. Bluffers when they are obvious tend to attract a lot of negative attention. Focus more on giving the best poker game you can. It’ll all even out in the long run.

Going Head to Head With Tilt

Facing tilt is a big deal. You want to face it as soon as possible so that you can definitely overcome it. The more that you play poker, the more that you will run into the possibility of tilt. What is tilt, then? It’s a loss of control that makes you play really bad poker. You know that you aren’t supposed to rush into that hand, but you do it anyway. You think that everything will be okay. You think that things will get better. We’re here to tell you that if you don’t straighten up, poker will be a bad experience for you.

Playing for real money? Tilt is your enemy. It will suck the cash right out of your bankroll and not ask you what you think about it. When you start getting angry, stressed, hurt, or otherwise frazzled, you need to STEP BACK. A lot of players think that they can just keep going but that’s not really the attitude that you want to take at all. You want to actually realize that there’s a time and a place to play poker…and a time and a place to just sit back and relax.

Dealing with tilt will be difficult for each and every player. Some people feel that they really need to look at tilt, while others throw it away. They’re not playing for real money, so what’s the point?

Poker TiltThe point is that you should always be playing your best version of poker. You never know who you can connect with when you do. You also need to realize that poker is something that will help you evolve your skills over time.

People get into tilt when they feel that the current game outweighs everything else that they’re doing. So they want to really play and have a good time, but they just aren’t sure how to pull that off. They want to win at all costs. The truth that every gambler accepts is that you just can’t win all of the time. There are just going to be points of life where you’re going to have to accept this truth. You will lose money and that’s point of the thrill, oddly enough. If it were guaranteed that you win all the time, the challenge would be gone. You owe it to yourself to make absolutely sure that you’re thinking continuously of playing poker. You want people to be impressed with your super awesome poker skills instead of feeling like it’s impossible to get your attention. Playing great poker means that you’re letting your skills shine.

There’s no need to talk if you don’t want to. Let the cards and your gameplay speak for themselves. And if you feel like you’re taking things too seriously — step away from the table. You’re in the business of poker to make money over time. Let the fish have their moment of glory. They’re going to be down further than you. You will last in poker because you have self discipline. That’s what really matters in a poker match anyway. You have to be able to outwit, outlast, and outplay anyone and everyone that gets in your way. Yes, kind of like Survivor, but hey — we never said it would be easy! Good luck!

Poker for US Players is Alive and Well

The thrill of chasing the river, the rush that comes from bullying an aggressive player and the sweet sensation of victory — all of these things come together when you’re talking about poker. Many US players think that they’re out of the action for good, thanks to a few less than pleasant pieces of legislation that were passed. That part of poker’s history can be skipped over now — we don’t need to dwell on such a dark and sad time. Things are definitely getting better, thanks to continuing support from professional poker lobbies and general American support for online gambling in general.

The truth is that legal poker for US players is indeed alive and well. According to this article, legislation to introduce better online gambling prospects is indeed in the works, but it’s still got a ways to go. Despite the ongoing issues with US legislation, there are indeed online poker operators that have opened the doors to US players. The trouble now is that US players have to go out and find them.

Poker for US Players

Thankfully, it’s not difficult to find what you’re really looking for. You can look online for sites that don’t just tolerate US players — they are welcomed with open arms. Naturally, you don’t want to spend all day combing through hundreds of online poker websites. You can skip that heavy researching and connect directly to a site that has done all of the hard work for you. One site that immediately caught our attention is www.cardschat.com. They have a very informative page that will help US players find the action they crave. They’ve done all of the work for you and have plenty of sites for you to check out. You get to look at each site knowing that it has a focus on not just a quality experience, but a fair one as well.

Worried about security? You’re actually not the only one. Quite a few US players are concerned about this issue. The truth is that online casinos have truly gone above and beyond to ensure that you have an enjoyable experience that’s as safe as possible. Attracting US players is important to many online poker rooms and casinos. They want to make sure that you have such a great time that you’ll want to tell your friends all about it. The casino industry as a whole takes steps to really make sure that all players get a fair environment. In this manner, everyone wins! The casinos get players that truly love the game of poker, and the players get a place where they can actually play as much poker as they would like.

If you want to jump into the action, you’ll find that the steps ahead of you are pretty straightforward. You don’t have to skip out on the gambling experience that you deserve. You get to enjoy the experience that European poke players have, right from the comfort of your own home. Start with the site that we’ve featured here in this guide, and look at their recommendations. You’ll find sites that real US poker players count on day in and day out. Why not make a little extra money on the side if you can help it? Check out the action today, and good luck!

Behold, the Power of Suited Connectors in Poker

Suited connectors can definitely make a difference. They are small; you might be tempted to throw them away. But if there ever a time where we really don’t want to throw them away? You want to consider 54s and 87s to be good hands in no-limit poker games because you can get a decent flush as well as a straight. If you really get the right flop, you could get a straight flush. That’s the perfect situation to lure someone into your pot and then bust them out from the table. It’s completely up to you figure out how you’re going to make it work.

You want to make sure that you’re playing form the right position. You don’t want to be in early position for something like this. Pot odds need to be amazing, and you want to have t least 4 other people in the pot with you. While you don’t have to slowplay this type of hand, you really want to make sure that you don’t do any wild raises. Be prepared to fold if things get too hot. Just because you have suited connectors doesn’t mean that you’re going to get what you automatically win. Remember that we think about poker in terms of long term value. So if we find that the odds are looking good long term, then that’s the decision that we make.

Suited connectorsLet’s say that you’re calling big blind and you have 54s in the last position. You have a total of 5 in the pot. The flop might come down like:

5d-4-s-Tc

At this point, you have two pair. The big blind bets about 75% of the pot. Everybody else gets scared but you decide to hang in there. That means that you’ve got some choices to make. Do you bet again? In this case, you do. You can do 3 times the pot fairly safely.

But oh no — that big blind is ALL IN.

The showdown comes to you and the big blind. At this point, it doesn’t matter what the other 2 cards are.

Let’s say the big blind has the best pocket pair he can possibly make — AA. You still have two pair. No matter how scary the pair looks, the reality is that you can beat them. That’s something that you really do need to pay close attention to. It might sound tempting to ignore this, but it’s in your best interest to follow a set strategy.

You also want to be willing to fold — it cannot be stressed enough. If you don’t get it on the flop, fold and let it go. Likewise if someone raises heavy pre-flop, let your suited connectors go. The long term odds just aren’t in your favor.

Keep playing, and enjoying your games. It’s supposed to be fun, you know!

Are You Really Ready For Higher Stakes in Poker

Ah, poker limits. If there’s one thing that everybody’s curious about, it would have to be poker table limits. A lot of people wonder when the right time to move to a bigger game is. While a bigger game means more cash, it also means a lot more risk. What you have to do is make sure that you’re balancing all of the facts at play before moving on.

At first glance, the answer looks easy: just move up when you’ve got the money, and go back down when your bankroll tells you that you don’t have enough. But you have to go beyond what looks simple and dig into the issue. Don’t worry; we’re here to help you do just that.

One of the first things that you have to look at is whether or not you’re winning. It’s tempting to believe that you can just “wing it” — and many poker players do. But you’re trying to be a professional, a veteran, someone that newbies look at and admire… right? If you’re trying to win consistent money, you have to do other things very consistently. You can’t just wing it and hope everything moves along the right way for you. That just wouldn’t make much sense at all. You have to think instead of the bigger picture, your goals, and how to get there one day at a time. Rushing is actually what hurts a lot of people, but there’s nothing that says that you have to be part of that number.

Beginner Poker Tips

You have to track all of your money from session to session. Don’t lose sight of this — even if you’re playing a lot of hands, you need some way to look at the data. It’s also a good idea to set aside a certain day that you’ll review this. Every week should have an analysis day just to make sure that your overall strategy is where you need to be. Statistics matter. In fact, you should automatically avoid any person trying to tell you that poker statistics don’t matter. It’s a losing game if you ignore them, and that’s not something that you want to get into at all.

You have to review your playing history so you can look at how you’re doing per house, and per buy-in size as well. You want to look at your win rate to see where you’re going. In a nutshell, your win rate is really the number of big blinds per 100 hands for no-limit Hold’Em. We’re going to assume that you’re playing NLHE because that’s the most popular form of poker around.

If you’ve played 20,000 hands of $25 no-limit and made a profit of 2,000, then your win rate would be 6.66 big blinds per 100 hands. That’s $1.66 per 100 hands (.25 * 6.66). The hourly rate can depend on how many hands you play each and every hour. 500 hands per hour? This is a big number, but it’s not out of reach for certain players.

If you’re more of a tournament player (we’re big tournament people, but we’ll try not to be biased…), then you’re going to look at the return on investment (ROI). You might recognize this term from the business world, because it’s all about looking at what you have coming back to you based on what you put in.

The net profit you’ve earned from playing poker is the ROI. You have to divide the profit by the amount you’ve invested and multiply it by the number of games that you played. 0% ROI means that you’ve broken even. And yes, it’s possible to have a negative ROI.

If you’ve played 1,000 $10 SNG’s, this means that you’ve actually spent 10 grand. Your profit might be 1500, which would be an ROI of 15%. That’s not terrible, because it’s at least positive. You could move up based on that.

We have to also consider the amount of play. You don’t want to just go off 500 hands before you make a move. You actually want to get a good data field to look at — 30,000 hands or better. That’s a lot of hands, but not really: if you’re playing 500 hands an hour, and you only play 8 hours of poker a week, that’s only 4,000 hands a week. So you need to play for a few months in order to get the sample size necessary for study.

Moving up is serious — there are people lurking at every level to take your chips. You need to make sure that you think about your competition. If you’re having a hard time keeping up with the competition at the lower stakes, moving up is only going to make you more frustrated. Master the lower game before you move to the upper game.

What about your playing style? You might think that your playing style doesn’t matter but it definitely does. More experienced players will be trying to figure out if you’re a rock (a very tight player that barely plays anything) or if you’re super loose (and can be lured into more pots because “you might get lucky”.) The psychological game heats up, and that’s something that you have to consider as well.

We wanted to give you a fair and balanced article, but we have to be honest — there are so many poker players that it’s hard to give advice across the board. You might not pass the data tests, but you feel that you can still rock it out. If you truly feel that confident, go for it — it’s not our money, after all. These tips are designed to help you put more money in your pocket, as well to keep the money that you have where it belongs…with you and not the sharks that are gunning for you!

Setting Great Poker Goals in the New Year Around Us

Look, the New Year might already be in full swing but hey… it’s only February at the time of this post. So that means that you have plenty of year left to tighten up your poker game. You just have to actually want it. You have to want to do better in poker.

The truth is that poker is often thought to be very random, where you can just go with your gut. That’s what newbies think. They do have blind luck — who hasn’t caught a full house with a 72o? That’s one of the worst starting hands you could play and yet… you can get lucky with it.

Poker is a game of odds, and you have to play those odds. Sure, you can get lucky with that awful 72o, but the truth is … you’re better off folding it. Don’t hold out for that mystical point where you’re going to get lucky with it. You have to make sure that you’re always thinking about trying to do your best in poker. You’re better off waiting for a better hand like A9s (ace-nine suited, for the newbies) than trying to make something out of that awful 72o.

Poker GoalsYou have to set real goals for yourself in poker. Sure, it’s tempting to think that you’re always going to win in poker no matter what you do. But you have to have goals to get better, and you definitely need to make sure that you have a system in place that’s going to work for you. To do anything less is just going to make you upset. You have to make sure that you stay realistic. Nobody becomes Doyle Brunson overnight. Even the great poker champs lose and they often lose big before winning big. Everything balances out. Don’t make yourself feel like you have to necessarily go with a lot of poker theory. The goal here is to have fun and play hard. Sometime you can take poker so seriously that you never do anything else than play poker.

If you’re one of those people that can’t handle losses, then you really have no business playing poker. You will just end up making yourself feel like there’s no way that you’re going to rise higher. You will rise. It’s only a matter of time. But in the meantime, you’re going to have to keep playing. Consistency is actually what takes you higher in the world of poker. Just wishing isn’t enough. Watching all of the old WSOPs isn’t enough. You’re going to have to go out there, play, and look at different scenarios. There’s no substitute for live action. Don’t get mad if things don’t flow the same way that the poker theory guides tell you that they’re supposed to. You have erratic players, people that play with no strategy at all… the list goes on and on. Not everyone is going to be as gung ho about poker as you. Even when the stakes being to rise, some people are playing mostly as a hobby. If you’re trying to win big money in the world of poker, you have to figure out what you’re ultimately going to do and then proceed from there.

Getting help along the way is a must. Don’t think that just because you play at an online casino that people aren’t going to want to talk about it. They most certainly are going to want to talk to you about just about anything and everything that you can think of. What more can you expect than that? Good luck!

How to Choose a Best Online Poker Site!

A decision related to the playing online poker is really an exciting one. Playing an online poker may be just for fun motive for few people, while for few it may be a serious attempt to earn some additional bucks. However, no matter what motive one has in his mind regarding opting for this game, a careful analysis of diverse criteria may help him in choosing a right poker room and best online poker site, which in turn may enhance his chances of winning the game.

Criteria related to the sign-up: In case, if you merely want to experience fun, it is better to opt for those sites that are willing to offer free sign-up to the interested players. In case, if you want to earn money, then only it does make sense to opt for the sites asking for subscription amount or deposits.

Playing mode: If you are not bothered about the disk space of your computer, you may opt for downloading the poker client software because that does offer a good speed. A decision of opting for web-based interface may slow down your computer speed.

Best Online Poker SiteDeposit and withdrawal methods: If earning money is your main motive then a careful analysis of diverse kinds of deposits and withdrawal methods is must. A reputed site will always offer convenient methods of deposits like bank transfer, wire transfer, ACH transfer, checks, etc. In case, if a site also has an association with the companies offering third-party eWallet facility, then that offers more convenience to the players.

Support system: Carrying out an analysis related to the support system of a site, also does make a lot of difference because all players may not be well-versed with the knowledge of the game. You should check that whether the site is providing diverse kinds of support or no, including fax support, live-chat session, toll-free support and Email support.

Varieties of games: All sites don’t offer all varieties of the game so you should choose a site by taking into consideration the knowledge possessed by you, your gaming skills and your interest.

Varieties of Bonuses: Diversity of Bonuses is undoubtedly the major attraction for players. You should take a careful look at the varieties of the bonuses, offered by various sites, in order to determine that which bonus would be more relevant to you.

Design and usability of a website: Few players are merely concerned with the money and don’t give importance to the graphics of a website and its usability aspect. Few players do desire for quality-oriented graphics, so if you are among them, don’t forget to ensure that a website chosen by you is competent in offering you an effortless navigation. A best online poker site is one that has a mix of excellent navigation plus mesmerizing graphics.